At first glance, things haven’t changed all that much since soccer’s post-World Cup restart a month or so ago.
Arsenal and Manchester City have averaged more than two points per game in Premier League play, just as they did before the break. Barcelona have dropped only two points and extended their LaLiga lead. Napoli have continued to roll in Italy, and Bayern Munich have yet to lose a match and remain a heavy Bundesliga favorite (82% chance, per FiveThirtyEight).
But Bayern also haven’t won a league match, and Barcelona’s xG numbers hint at serious problems. And Brentford have been Arsenal’s equal. And PSG have been mostly sleepwalking. And Monza and Clermont Foot have been among the best in Italy and France.
Compared to expectations, there have been plenty of strange shifts in recent weeks. It’s almost as if pausing the club season for a month-long international tournament in Qatar was disruptive or something!
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Small sample sizes apply, and regression to the mean will settle in for some teams soon enough, but a lot of odds and statuses have changed since play resumed. Within Europe’s big five leagues, let’s look at who’s overachieving, who’s underachieving, and who needs to really get their act together before continental play starts again.
English Premier League
Since the restart…
TEAMMATCHESPOINTSPTS VS PROJ* (RK)XG VS PROJ** (RK)Arsenal5130.8 (4)0.4 (5)Brentford5111.0 (1)0.7 (1)Manchester City613-0.1 (10)0.3 (6)Manchester United6130.4 (8)0.2 (8)Fulham6120.9 (2)0.5 (4)Brighton and Hove Albion5100.5 (6)-0.3 (13)Aston Villa7140.8 (3)0.1 (9)Newcastle590.0 (9)0.7 (2)Nottingham Forest580.7 (5)0.6 (3)Liverpool57-0.6 (15)-0.7 (20)Wolverhampton570.5 (7)-0.3 (14)Chelsea68-0.3 (12)0.3 (7)Tottenham Hotspur67-0.3 (13)-0.5 (18)Crystal Palace65-0.3 (11)-0.5 (19)West Ham United54-0.6 (16)0.1 (10)Southampton53-0.7 (18)-0.1 (12)Leeds United53-0.4 (14)-0.1 (11)Leicester City51-1.0 (20)-0.4 (17)Everton51-0.8 (19)-0.3 (16)AFC Bournemouth51-0.7 (17)-0.3 (15)
* Pts vs. Proj.: A comparison of the points teams have earned vs. the average points they were expected to earn via FiveThirtyEight’s SPI projections. For instance, projections suggested Brentford should have earned an average of 6.2 points from their past five league matches against Tottenham Hotspur (28% of a win, 22% chance draw), West Ham (27% win, 25% draw), Liverpool (20% win, 19% draw), Bournemouth (58% win, 22% draw) and Leeds United (37% win, 23% draw). Instead, they took 11 points, an overachievement of 4.8 points, or 1.0 per match.
** xG vs. Proj.: Same as above, only comparing each team’s expected goals, or xG, differential vs. its projected goal differential. (Why xG instead of actual goals? Because with such a small sample size, that would be looking as much at who’s been fortunate/unfortunate instead of who’s been good/bad. Expected goals are a measure of how many likely scoring opportunities teams create, but finishing is more subject to luck.)
Steady as she goes for Arsenal
Arsenal held a five-point advantage over Manchester City before the World Cup, but FiveThirtyEight projections suggested that City still held a 53% chance of winning the Premier League to Arsenal’s 36%. But despite losing forward Gabriel Jesus to World Cup injury, the Gunners have dropped only two points (via 0-0 draw with Newcastle) since the break. They’ve scored 10 goals in four wins, and took down both Spurs and Manchester United in their past two league games. Current title odds? Arsenal 63%, City 34%.
Arsenal have overachieved since the World Cup break, according to where projections said they should be now. Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images
There’s obviously plenty of work to be done, and Man City have shown signs of shifting into fourth or fifth gear after a slow restart — City beat Spurs and Wolves by a combined 7-2 in their past two league matches, and took down Arsenal 1-0 in the fourth round of the FA Cup. But Arsenal are up to third overall in the SPI ratings and the Gunners continue to overachieve projections on average. We might not have found their ceiling yet.
Bees a-stinging in Brentford
The winter transfer window in England was, in a word, dramatic.
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Eight teams below Brentford in the table — a grouping of Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Wolves, Southampton, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Leeds and Leicester City, which current projections suggest will produce an average of 2.1 relegation spots and 0.1 spots in the Champions League at the end of the season — combined to sign 32 players for transfer fees worth EUR610.9 million in January. Meanwhile, fellow overachiever Brighton got picked at, losing Leandro Trossard to Arsenal (after losing manager Graham Potter to Chelsea), and turning down a huge Arsenal bid for Moises Caicedo that, since he seemed to be cheering on the move, could result in their star becoming unsettled.
Brentford, though? The Bees just kept their heads down, bringing in Freiburg winger Kevin Schade via loan, loaning some players out to lower leagues and focusing on actual results, like a 3-1 home win over Liverpool. They’re now eighth in the table, and their projected end-of-year point total, per FiveThirtyEight, has risen from 47 to 53.
Still waiting for signs of life from Liverpool
Just about any projections model is going to take a long-term view. Priors are predictive, and Liverpool’s 2021-22 success, combined with solid xG figures (they’re fourth in the league in xG differential), means that Jurgen Klopp’s side still ranks seventh in SPI, third in England. If they were to surge at some point, no one would be particularly surprised.
– Read on ESPN+: What’s fueling Everton’s decline?
We’re still waiting, though. Liverpool played six matches in January and won one of them. The Reds lost to Brentford and Brighton by a combined 6-1, then lost to Brighton again in the FA Cup. They drew 0-0 with an equally listless Chelsea, and their only win came against 17th-place Wolves in an FA Cup replay match, which was required because they had first drawn with Wolves at Anfield.
The only player Liverpool brought in for the winter transfer window was Cody Gakpo, and it looks like manager Jurgen Klopp still has his work cut out. Andrew Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images
Liverpool’s only January move was to bring in attacker Cody Gakpo from PSV, which could work out great long-term despite doing nothing to address their gaping current midfield issues. This might still be the third-best team in England when all is said and done, but the Reds are leaking points profusely at the moment, and their odds of finishing in the top four are down to 29%.
Spanish LaLiga
Since the restart…
TEAMMATCHESPOINTSPTS VS PROJXG VS PROJReal Sociedad5131.2 (1)0.6 (4)Barcelona5130.5 (3)-0.9 (20)Atletico Madrid5100.2 (7)0.9 (1)Villarreal5100.4 (4)0.0 (10)Sevilla FC5100.4 (5)-0.1 (12)Real Madrid47-0.1 (13)-0.3 (15)Celta Vigo580.2 (9)0.9 (2)Cadiz580.3 (6)0.1 (5)Espanyol580.5 (2)-0.1 (13)Rayo Vallecano570.2 (10)0.1 (7)Real Betis570.2 (8)0.0 (11)Almeria560.1 (11)0.0 (9)Mallorca56-0.1 (12)-0.3 (16)Girona FC55-0.1 (14)0.6 (3)Osasuna55-0.3 (15)-0.5 (17)Getafe53-0.6 (18)0.1 (8)Real Valladolid53-0.3 (16)-0.7 (19)Athletic Bilbao52-1.0 (19)-0.2 (14)Elche52-0.4 (17)0.1 (6)Valencia41-1.4 (20)-0.5 (18)
Barcelona’s doing well… and also poorly?
Barcelona led Real Madrid by two points in the LaLiga race when play halted in November. That lead is eight points today. Real Madrid have played one fewer game, but per FiveThirtyEight, Barca’s title odds have improved from 67% to 74% since the restart.
After a draw with Espanyol, the Blaugrana took out Atletico Madrid, Getafe and Girona by matching 1-0 scores, then topped Real Betis 2-1 on Wednesday. They also won the Spanish Super Cup with a 3-1 win over Real Madrid, and advanced to the semifinals of the Copa del Rey (with help from another 1-0 win), where they’ll play the Blancos yet again. In all, they haven’t lost since Oct. 26’s 3-0 Champions League defeat against Bayern Munich.