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The tables have turned since Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich were drawn together in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 in November. At the time, the unbeaten French capital outfit appeared to have received a somewhat favorable tie with the Bavarians a bit sluggish domestically and then Sadio Mane getting injured before losing Lucas Hernandez too. However, Tuesday’s first leg (3 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+) now appears to have come at the worst possible timing for PSG with Christophe Galtier’s men struggling and Bayern looking the stronger of the two.
Mane is still out for Julian Nagelsmann’s side and the German tactician appears to have been right about Kylian Mbappe being passed fit for their Parc des Princes clash. It is not just the injury and availability stakes that have been leveled out, though, with Les Parisiens’ form dropping off a cliff since the FIFA 2022 World Cup as the Bundesliga leaders rested.
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We compare the two clubs and their situations coming into this one:
PSG
The Ligue 1 leaders quickly lost their unbeaten run after the World Cup in Qatar with Galtier’s squad being decimated by star players making deep runs with their national teams. Mbappe returned to Paris to help out immediately after the defeat to Argentina in the final, but the full squad has rarely been together since the tournament and certain players might as well have stayed away.
Lionel Messi and Neymar have struggled for their best form since the resumption of club action while Mbappe picked up an injury that threatened to rule him out against Bayern until his last-minute recovery. PSG’s form reflects those losses with six wins, four defeats, and just one draw from 11 competitive outings — almost twice as many fixtures as Bayern since the World Cup.
Galtier’s men are now out of the Coupe de France and lost to Olympique de Marseille to rub salt in the wounds while RC Lens, Stade Rennais, and AS Monaco have all beaten the capital club. Although PSG are still top of Ligue 1, January was not a particularly successful month with Keylor Navas and Pablo Sarabia lessening squad depth with no replacements and no defensive reinforcements.
The momentum they were enjoying pre-World Cup suddenly feels a long way in the past and contributes towards PSG coming into this one as underdogs of a sort.
Bayern
Unbeaten since the World Cup, the Bundesliga titleholders have followed three post-World Cup draws with wins and suddenly seem much more formidable. Nagelsmann has seen his players score 11 times from their past three outings and conceded just two to wake up in time for this crunch clash.
Bayern lead the Bundesliga ahead of surprise title challengers Union Berlin while they also remain in domestic cup competition (DFB Pokal), unlike PSG. There is also no doubt that they are the fresher of the two sides having enjoyed a much longer break post-Qatar thanks to Germany’s winter pause.
However, Bayern’s most impressive area of improvement has arguably come in the transfer window where they moved to offset the potentially disastrous loss of Manuel Neuer by signing the experienced Yann Sommer. The Germans then moved to surprisingly land Joao Cancelo from Manchester City which gives them an injection of quality on the right as well as at the back.
Few saw Bayern moving so smartly this winter. Their ability to offset the loss of Neuer as well as strengthen the defense and Nagelsmann’s position with greater control over his staff has been nothing short of a midseason management masterstroke. Missing Mane and Hernandez does not necessarily feel like a huge handicap right now.
Verdict
There is no doubt that PSG are better for having Mbappe, Messi, Marco Verratti, and Presnel Kimpembe fit and available for this one. However, their form has been chaotic of late and the early season strength and solidarity that we saw is nowhere to be found for now. There is little doubt that Bayern come into this one in better shape and that this opening leg as well as the return in Germany could be campaign-defining on PSG’s side.