Understanding Iran’s Potential Withdrawal from the 2026 World Cup

Background: War and Iran’s World Cup Participation

In late February, a joint U.S. and Israeli military operation escalated tensions in Iran, leading Ahmad Donyamali, Iran’s Minister of Sport and Youth, to announce that “under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup.” The statement referenced missile strikes that resulted in the death of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and raised concerns about player safety amid ongoing hostilities. While Iran’s withdrawal has not been formally confirmed by FIFA or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran, the minister’s comments cast significant doubt on the team’s summer involvement.

Iran’s 2026 World Cup Schedule

Iran is drawn into Group G and scheduled to play:
• June 15 vs. New Zealand at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
• June 21 vs. Belgium at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
• June 26 vs. Egypt at Lumen Field, Seattle

A withdrawal would leave Group G in limbo and force FIFA to adjust match fixtures and advancement criteria.

FIFA Regulations on World Cup Withdrawals

FIFA’s 2026 World Cup regulations outline procedures for withdrawal under force majeure:

Force Majeure Clause (Regulation 6.5)

“If a Participating Member Association withdraws or a match cannot be played or is abandoned as a result of force majeure, the authorized FIFA organizing body shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary.”

Replacement Protocols (Regulation 6.7)

“If any Participating Member Association withdraws and/or is excluded from the FIFA World Cup, FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and may replace the Participating Member Association with another association.”

These clauses grant FIFA broad flexibility, allowing for anything from altering group sizes to selecting replacement teams.

Possible Scenarios for Group G

Reducing Group G to Three Teams

One option is to proceed with three teams in Group G. This change would affect the round of 32 qualification process, which currently advances 32 teams (including the eight best third-placed sides). A three-team group could disadvantage a third-placed finisher, as they would have fewer points opportunities compared to third-place teams in other groups.

Replacing Iran with Another AFC Member

Alternatively, FIFA may invite another Asian Football Confederation (AFC) nation to fill Iran’s spot. This approach would maintain the pre-tournament slot allocation and preserve a four-team group structure.

Likely Replacement Candidates

Iraq’s Position in Intercontinental Playoffs

Iraq narrowly missed direct qualification but secured an intercontinental playoff spot by defeating the United Arab Emirates in the AFC qualifiers. If Iran withdraws, Iraq could be promoted directly into the World Cup, subject to FIFA approval and logistical considerations.

United Arab Emirates as Backup

Should Iraq accept the direct berth, the UAE—facing its own airspace restrictions—might inherit the playoff slot. Scheduling remains uncertain due to regional conflicts and pending FIFA decisions.

Official Statements and Reactions

FIFA’s Response

FIFA has not publicly commented on Iran’s status, referencing only the existing regulations. A statement highlighted discussions between FIFA President Gianni Infantino and U.S. President Donald Trump, in which Trump affirmed that “the Iranian team is… welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States.”

U.S. Government Position

Despite initial support, President Trump later expressed reservations about Iran’s participation, citing concerns over the team’s safety if they travel to the U.S. for the World Cup.

Next Steps for FIFA and Iran

With three months remaining before the tournament kickoff, FIFA must monitor Iran’s official stance and decide whether to initiate a withdrawal process. Key considerations include:

• Confirming Iran’s formal intent to withdraw
• Evaluating potential replacement teams from the AFC
• Adjusting Group G’s match schedules and knockout-round qualification criteria

Ultimately, FIFA’s decision will shape the logistics and competitive balance of the 2026 World Cup, ensuring the tournament proceeds smoothly despite geopolitical challenges.