## Why This Year’s Ballon d’Or Is Difficult to Predict
The race for the Ballon d’Or is unusually open, with no clear favorite ahead of the awards ceremony in London. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have dominated the prize for years, but neither is considered a leading contender this time.
The award often goes to a standout performer from a team that won a major trophy. That logic could point to Spain midfielder Rodri, although his campaign was affected by his recovery from an ACL injury. Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League triumph also brings its players into the conversation, including Portuguese midfielder Vitinha.
But the men’s award may ultimately go to a candidate whose case is built on remarkable individual numbers: England captain and Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane.
## Harry Kane’s Ballon d’Or Case
Kane has established himself as one of his generation’s most prolific goal scorers. His case for the Ballon d’Or is strengthened by a reported 73 goals for club and country, along with 36 goals in 31 Bundesliga appearances.
His performances were not limited to domestic competition. Kane also impressed in major international and European matches, including against Ivory Coast and Paris Saint-Germain, and in Bayern’s contest with Real Madrid.
There are arguments against his candidacy. Kane’s teams fell short in some of the biggest matches, including the Champions League and World Cup campaigns. Still, his overall output makes him a serious contender, even if those high-profile setbacks complicate the case.
## Other Men’s Ballon d’Or Contenders
Rodri remains a possible choice as a key figure for Spain, while Vitinha could benefit from PSG’s Champions League success. The field also includes headline names such as Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal, adding to the uncertainty around the result.
With several deserving candidates and no obvious front-runner, this year’s Ballon d’Or vote could produce a surprise.
## Women’s Ballon d’Or Race
The women’s award also has no definitive favorite. If voters follow the usual pattern of rewarding players from the Champions League-winning team, Barcelona’s nominees could have an advantage.
Alexia Putellas is among the leading candidates after playing a central role in Barcelona’s European campaign, recording eight goals and six assists before moving to London City Lionesses. Three-time Ballon d’Or winner Aitana Bonmatí is not in contention after dealing with a broken leg last season.
Barcelona accounts for eight of the 30 nominees. NWSL standouts are also represented, including Kansas City Current forward Temwa Chawinga, a back-to-back league MVP, and U.S. international Rose Lavelle, who scored the winning goal in the previous NWSL Championship.
## Ballon d’Or Ceremony and Soccer Schedule
The Ballon d’Or ceremony is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 26, at 4 p.m. Eastern and will air on DAZN. The day also features a Ligue 1 match between Paris Saint-Germain and Lyon at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
On Tuesday, Oct. 27, Arsenal return to action in the EFL Cup against Fleetwood Town. The match is scheduled for 4 p.m. Eastern on Paramount+.
With the men’s and women’s races both lacking an unmistakable favorite, the ceremony is set to bring an unpredictable Ballon d’Or season to a close.