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It’s Black Friday and we’re here at the Golazo Starting XI Newsletter to help you nurse that Thanksgiving turkey hangover. Today’s best deal is a newsletter full of free soccer content. England take on the USA in what is the most-anticipated game of the World Cup for the Americans. And I’m here to bring you some hope for the USMNT. So, let’s get to it.
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? The Forward Line
Why England’s xG gives some hope for USA
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At first glance, England’s impressive 6-2 victory over Iran in their opening match seems to be an absolutely terrifying result for the USA to contemplate. But if you look under the hood of that game, there’s reason to believe that all that scoring was a little bit deceiving.
Coming into the World Cup, England were pitted as one of the favorites to win the whole thing. The success over recent years — finishing second at the Euros in the summer of 2021 after losing in the semifinals of the World Cup in Russia in 2018 — speaks for itself. Those results were built largely on a resilient defense and an attack that does just enough to win. The fact that this England side is now scoring for fun makes them an impressive force to be reckoned with. The good news for the United States men’s national team is that all that scoring may not continue.
Sure, the Three Lions scored six goals, but England’s expected goal (xG) total was only a more reasonable 2.11. That stat calculates how many goals a team will score on average from the chances they create. Why is it so useful, you ask? We have a decade of data now that demonstrates that over time even the best teams generally perform to the level their xG predicts, they just create more xG and concede less xG than their opponents.
To put that number in context, when Argentina suffered an upset 2-1 loss to Saudi Arabia, it happened despite the fact that Messi and company had an xG of 2.26 and only managed one goal. Germany had an xG of 3.09 in their 2-1 loss to Japan. England’s relatively paltry xG in comparison to their impressive goal scoring record also stands in contrast to the other high-octane performances of some of the World Cup’s best sides. When Spain scored seven goals against Costa Rica, their xG was 3.53. When France scored four against Australia, their xG was 4.21.
Craving more World Cup coverage? Listen below and follow House of Champions, a daily CBS Sports soccer podcast, bringing you top-notch analysis, commentary, picks and more during the big games in Qatar.
None of this means that the USMNT should be favored to win, of course. But it does mean that we should all be somewhat skeptical of the idea that the Americans have to deal with a new high-flying England side. Instead, England seem to be their same old selves, a good defensive side that against defensive opponents, especially, can be relatively stodgy in attack. Against a team like that, the USMNT will have a puncher’s chance.
? Midfield Link Play
Neymar to miss rest of group stage
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Your ankle is not supposed to look like that. On a day that was otherwise a triumphant beginning for Brazil at this World Cup, with Richarlison netting two goals in a win over Serbia, including what’s clearly the goal of the tournament thus far, Neymar is expected to miss the remainder of the group stage, which casts a pall over things. This Brazil team might be able to overcome his absence because they’re a tremendously deep and talented group, but they’ve also customized the way they play to feature his exquisite talents on the ball. Almost nobody operates in tight spaces like he does and his role as a playmaker behind three attackers is what has made the current version of Brazil side tick.
Let’s get to some links:
Everybody has played their first match and James Benge is here with your World Cup power rankings.What does the USMNT need to do to shock the world? Chuck Booth breaks down what they need.In Soccer We Trust! Jimmy Conrad, Charlie Davies and Heath Pearce break down what changes they expect to see from USA ahead of the big England game.If you want to hear what some people who DIDN’T play for the USA think of the team’s chances against England, check out the House of Champions preview.Take a walk down memory lane with Jenny Chiu as she looks back at Clint Dempsey’s 2010 goal against England in South Africa. If you were busy with your Turkey Day, Ronaldo joined an exclusive club yesterday as Portugal won 3-2 over Ghana.Speaking of turkey, the players of the USWNT weighed in with their favorite sides.Remember you can catch the Champions League, Serie A, WSL and more on Paramount+ — get 50% off the annual plan with promo code ALLYEAR!
Listen below and follow In Soccer We Trust: A CBS Sports Soccer Podcast where your three favorite former USMNT players cover everything you could possibly want to know about the United States men’s national team during the World Cup in Qatar.
? The Back Lines
Best bets
Let’s pick some games! All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
England vs. USA, Friday, 2 p.m. ET ? THE PICK: Under 2.5 goals (-120). I spent the bulk of this newsletter telling you to be skeptical of England’s newfound attacking verve. So let’s put our money where our mouth is. Good England performances usually involve grinding out wins and even good USA performances don’t involve creating a ton of scoring chances. So, if the game stays tight it’ll likely be a low-scoring affair.France vs. Denmark, Saturday, 11 a.m. ET ? THE PICK: Denmark (+400). France ran rampant over Australia, but Australia might be the worst team in the tournament. This is a big line for Denmark who despite an opening match draw are one of the best 10 or so teams in the tournament. Another option here might be betting on Denmark +0.5 goals at +0.5.