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The two-month wait is over, as the Champions League returns to action this week with the knockout stages. I finally have a chance to fill in that “0-0” mark that’s been sitting in the table tracking my results all this season.
For those of you who may be new to the Champions League, the knockout stages are the tournament’s second phase. Group play consists of eight groups of four playing six matches against the other three teams in their group (one home, one away), and in the end, the top two teams in the group move on to the knockout stages.
The knockout stages resemble a more traditional tournament format like in the NCAA Tournament, though the home and away aspect remains until the final. So the matches we’ll see this week are merely the first of two legs, and after the second leg, the team that wins on aggregate will move on.
This is important not only to understand what’s happening but also from a gambling perspective. It adds a bit of nuance because the approach teams would take in a win-or-go-home setting is much different than the approach they could choose for this format. The road team could look to keep things close until they return home for the second leg. It’s a factor that makes betting these matches more difficult but more fun at the same time.
RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid
Date: Tuesday, Feb. 13 Watch: CBS/Paramount+
Copenhagen is a great story reaching this point of the tournament, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say they got a bit lucky to be here. They had the worst xG differential in the group but were the beneficiary of Galatasaray’s and Manchester United’s failures. Now, their reward is Manchester City. Hooray!
As we enter the week, Copenhagen sits in third place in Denmark’s Superliga. There isn’t much reason to believe they’ll knock off the defending champions, but betting Man City to win at (-400) isn’t the most exciting play in the world. Instead, I’ll take a slightly different route that leads to the same destination. The Pick: Copenhagen Under 0.5 (-125)
PSG vs. Real Sociedad
Date: Wednesday, Feb. 14